Conflict resulting from climate change in Bangladesh

Written by Fazlous Satter Sunday, 23 May 2010 13:35

Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh, yet the core elements of its vulnerability are primarily contextual. Between 30-70% of the country is normally flooded each year. The huge sediment loads brought by three Himalayan rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient add to drainage congestion problems and exacerbate the extent of flooding. The societal exposure to such risks is further enhanced by Bangladesh’s very high population and population density. Many projected climate change impacts including sea level rise, higher temperatures (mean temperature increases of 1.4°C and 2.4°C are projected by 2050 and 2100 respectively), evapo-transpiration losses, enhanced monsoon precipitation and run-off, potentially reduced dry season precipitation, and increase in cyclone intensity would in fact reinforce many of these baseline stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the economic development of Bangladesh. A subjective ranking of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Bangladesh identifies water and coastal resources as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resources being affected. (Agrawala. Shardul, Ota. Tomoko, Ahmed. Ahsan Uddin, Smith. Joel, Aalst. Maarten Van).

With rise in temperature, sea level will rise because of thermal expansion and ice melt. Sea level rise has various impacts on Bangladesh a coastal country facing 710 km long coast to the Bay of Bengal. It already has affected Bangladesh by land erosion, salinity intrusion and loss in biodiversity. Its potential threats are coming even strongly in the future. Sea level rise will cause river bank erosion, salinity intrusion, flood, damage to infrastructures, crop failure, fisheries destruction, loss of biodiversity, etc. along this coast. A one-meter sea level rise (SLR) will affect the country’s vast coastal area and flood plain zone. It will affect Millennium Development goals, causing environmental refugees. Most vulnerable sectors to one metre sea level rise are coastal resources, water resources, agriculture and the ecosystem of Bangladesh.

Climate Change-A tale of Asarchar

Asarchar was a tiny char (island) that once emerged from the River Payra in the Amtali upazila under coastal district Barguna. The char is now infamous for large numbers of death caused by the Cyclone Sidor. Basically the Asarchar was a shelter for fisher folks who used to migrate in this area for catching fish in Bay of Bengol from various southern districts. Usually during winter they used to take refuge here with their family members in their temporarily built makeshift houses to dry up fish and accordingly after winter left the char. Number of this seasonal migration of fisher folks vary from year to year but roughly it is 4-7 thousand. This seasonal migration also created various local economic activities. But apart from the death of a large portion of migrant fisher folk, the char also disappear from the scene as a result of sand blowing during Sidor. The Asarchar is a history of a emerging char that once again rested under the water of mighty River Payra.

Climate refugees and conflict :The IPCC (Inter Government Panel on Climate Change) which is responsible for the research that has ended debate on whether human activity was responsible for climate change issued a stark warning that global climate change could suddenly accelerate and become irreversible. The warning from the scientists doesn’t mention the political threats that are rapidly emerging and becoming irreversible too but the connection between climate change and conflict was made very clearly at the Bali conference as well. Climate change induced political crisis may already have reached the threshold with the eye of the storm in South Asia.

As, Afsan Chowdhury mentioned that the damaged caused by the latest storm in Bangladesh, a category 4 SIDR will add on to the misery of the July-August floods affecting already fragile livelihoods. With more people impoverished, it will trigger environmental refugees, internally and externally. As climate change gallops, millions may trek to wherever they think will be safe. The natural choice of Bangladeshi millions will almost certainly be India creating the platform for instability and possible conflicts in the entire region.
A study by SAARC Meteorology Research Centre (SMRC, cited in Alam, 2003) found that tidal level in Hiron Point, Char Changa and Cox’s Bazar raised 4.0 mm/year, 6.0 mm/year and 7.8 mm/year respectively, observing tidal gauge record of the period 1977-1998 (Table-3). The rate of the tidal trend is almost double in the eastern coast than that of the western coast. This difference could be due to subsidence and uplifting of land. However, Sing (2002) mentioned that the difference is mainly due to land subsidence.
A study of Earth Policy Institute (2004) shows the problem more seriously, that about 40 million people of Bangladesh out of 144 million will become environmental refugees due to 1- m sea level rise.

Impact of climate change on women: while there has been an average significant decrease in disaster related deaths in Bangladesh but still the death rate of women aged 20-24 is 71 per 1000, compared to 15 per 1000 men (UNEP2005). It is reveled in various studies that in a cyclone, even if a warning is issued many women die while waiting for their return to home and accompany them to safe place. Many women also refrain from going to shelters during disaster or when warning signal is issued in fear that they would have to share a room with strange men. Pregnant women and nursing mothers tend to reluctant to share space with or nurse in front of strangers. Some women with disabilities also mention facing different kind of violence in shelters, including mental abuse and physical torture.

Climate change also severely made affect on women’s economic livelihoods. As Wahida Bashar mentioned in her case study titled “Gender, Human Security and Climate Change in Bangladesh” that floods and cyclones damage livestock (i.e. cows, goat, buffaloes), poultry (i.e. chickens, ducks), fisheries, trees, crops (i.e. rice, wheat, nuts, chilies, lentils), seeds and animal fodder. Production tools such as plough and nets are also washed away. Increase salinity after a cyclone and the difficulty in plowing wet soil after flood decreased soil productivity. Sand deposition as a result of flood and river erosion affected production of crops such as nuts. During and after disaster, the lack of fodder for livestock and poultry results in reduced milk and meat production.

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Note: This article is a part of research report of this author titled “Study on the Conflicts & emergencies resulting from development activities along with elite capturing, non-participatory management of natural resources” conducted with the Action Aid Bangladesh as an Independent Research Consultant.

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